A strengthening El Niño and the emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are increasing the likelihood of a drier-than-average spring. While July rainfall has been close to average across much of the southern Basin, the seasonal outlook suggests opportunities for meaningful inflows may become increasingly limited in the months ahead.
Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture but largely missed key southern catchments. With drier conditions emerging, the window for meaningful inflows is continuing to narrow.
Climatic indicators across the Southern Murray–Darling Basin continue to present a mixed short-term picture, with rainfall opportunities in the near term but an increasingly dry signal developing as the season progresses toward winter.