Southern Basin Water Intelligence

Independent analysis of allocations, trade activity and pricing signals.

The Basin Brain provides independent analysis of water allocations, storage movements and temporary trade across the Southern Murray-Darling Basin.

Public data is structured, monitored and interpreted to identify emerging pricing signals, seasonal risk factors and allocation probability trends.

  • Water Water

    MARKET UPDATES

    MARKET UPDATES

    Recent volatility in Allocation Markets. Whilst most higher security entitlements enjoy their maximum allocation, Goulburn High Reliability along with General Security entitlements in the NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee faulter.

    Click here for the latest briefings.

  • Chart-line Chart-line

    TRADE INTELLIGENCE

    TRADE INTELLIGENCE

    Allocation pricing experienced a sharp increase in the back half of summer, however significant recent rain events cause prices to soften. Will the downward trend be sustained?

    Click here for further trade insight.

  • Cloud-thunder Cloud-thunder

    CLIMATE INSIGHTS

    CLIMATE INSIGHTS

    Following significant rainfall at the start of March, outlooks favor a possibility of above average rainfall in coming weeks. However, most models currently suggest below average rainfall for much of Autumn and a transition to El Nino by Winter.

    Click here for further climate insights.

Member Access

Deeper allocation modelling, detailed trade breakdowns and historical datasets available to members.

**COMING SOON**

MARKET COMMENTARY AND UPDATES

Southern Murray–Darling Basin Water Market Update

Allocation announcements have delivered improved confidence to the 2026-27 water year, with increases across Victoria and New South Wales improving the short-term outlook. However, with climate models continuing to favour below-average rainfall and drier conditions ahead, longer-term supply risks remain and water users should continue to monitor the market closely.
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Weather Outlook

A strengthening El Niño and the emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are increasing the likelihood of a drier-than-average spring. While July rainfall has been close to average across much of the southern Basin, the seasonal outlook suggests opportunities for meaningful inflows may become increasingly limited in the months ahead.
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Southern Murray–Darling Basin Water Market Update

Welcome to the 2026-27 water year. Opening allocations have been announced across the Southern Murray-Darling Basin, reflecting another tight resource position. With general security allocations in New South Wales opening at 0% and winter inflows set to shape the months ahead, attention now turns to early-season trade activity and the first outlook updates due later in July.
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Independent analysis of water allocations, storage movements and temporary trade activity across the Southern Murray–Darling Basin.
Public data is structured and interpreted to highlight meaningful pricing signals and seasonal risk indicators.

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DATA DISCLAIMER

Data sourced from publicly available state and Commonwealth water authorities.
Analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice.
Market conditions can change rapidly.

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