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Allocation announcements have delivered improved confidence to the 2026-27 water year, with increases across Victoria and New South Wales improving the short-term outlook. However, with climate models continuing to favour below-average rainfall and drier conditions ahead, longer-term supply risks remain and water users should continue to monitor the market closely.
Welcome to the 2026-27 water year. Opening allocations have been announced across the Southern Murray-Darling Basin, reflecting another tight resource position. With general security allocations in New South Wales opening at 0% and winter inflows set to shape the months ahead, attention now turns to early-season trade activity and the first outlook updates due later in July.
The Southern Murray-Darling Basin water market has softened in recent weeks, as improved catchment conditions and reduced on-farm demand have weighed on pricing; although underlying supply risks remain firmly in place heading toward the 2026–27 water year.
Conditions across the Southern Murray–Darling Basin water market have tightened again over the past week, with prices in the Lower Murray moving higher as follow-up rainfall failed to materialise across key catchments.
Widespread rainfall across the Southern Murray–Darling Basin has softened temporary water prices and reduced near-term demand. However, with storages only around average and the broader outlook still dry, the recent relief may prove short-lived without sustained follow-up rainfall.
Temporary water prices in the Murray–Darling Basin are firming amid unchanged allocations, a dry autumn outlook and emerging El Niño risk. With storages near 2019 levels and structural supply tightening, price pressure remains biased to the upside without meaningful rainfall.