Welcome to the 2026–27 water year.
The new season has commenced with opening allocation determinations broadly reflecting the tight resource position that has developed across the Southern Murray-Darling Basin following a dry inflow year and below-average storage recovery through autumn.
Opening determinations have been announced as follows:
- Victorian Murray High Reliability: 29%
- Victorian Goulburn High Reliability: 15%
- NSW Murray High Security: 97%
- NSW Murrumbidgee High Security: 95%
- NSW Murray General Security: 0%
- NSW Murrumbidgee General Security: 0%
The opening allocations are largely consistent with the outlooks released over recent months and reinforce the cautious resource position discussed in previous market updates. While high security entitlements have received near-full opening allocations in New South Wales, general security users begin another season without an allocation, placing increased emphasis on winter inflows and future allocation announcements.
In Victoria, the Resource Manager has declared Low Risk of Spill (LRoS) for the Goulburn system, with the current Risk of Spill for the Murray at 30%. This announcement means water held in Goulburn spillable water accounts is now available for use or trade. Risk of Spill announcements will occur on the 10th of each month, until the 10% threshold has been met in the Murray system and a LRoS declaration can be announced.
Updated seasonal outlooks for both Victoria and New South Wales are scheduled for release on 15 July, providing the first indication of how winter inflows are influencing resource assessments for the new water year. The Victorian outlooks currently continue to demonstrate the significant influence seasonal inflows will have on allocation improvements over coming months, particularly under average and drier inflow scenarios.
Attention in the short term will now shift from allocation announcements to market behaviour. Early-season trade activity will provide an indication of irrigator confidence, while rainfall, winter inflows and evolving climate signals are expected to remain the primary drivers of market direction.
The Basin enters the 2026-27 season from a relatively tight resource position. Although recent rainfall has improved catchment conditions in parts of the Basin, meaningful allocation improvements will ultimately depend on sustained winter inflows into the major storage systems.
As the new water year unfolds, The Basin Brain will continue to monitor allocation announcements, storage trends, trade activity and seasonal outlooks, providing regular updates as conditions evolve.
